Ohio Playoff Projections - Week 8

Based on what is expected over the last two weeks, here are my initial amateur projections for the local regions in Divisions 1 & 2(the other divisions don't have enough local teams involved to go deeply into; Division 4 coming later).

Division 1, Region 4

#8 Anderson at #1 St. Xavier

#5 Glen Este at #4 Clayton Northmont

#6 Huber Heights Wayne at #3 Sycamore

#7 Lakota West at #2 Colerain

There's still a lot that could change here, but I'm picking St. X to win out over St. Ignatius and Moeller to take the top spot. Colerain will get #2 if they defeat Sycamore. I'm anticipating Glen Este to lose either to Harrison or Winton Woods (my guess is WW), which would allow Northmont to snag the home game if they defeat either Piqua or Trotwood-Madison.

After that it gets pretty sketchy. Wayne and Lakota West should get through their final two games unscathed, and if Anderson wins out they're in the thick of the playoff race as well.

Right now I have Centerville as the first team out; even with two wins my guess is they fall a half-point short. The guess here is that Moeller loses its last two games (very difficult ones against St. Edward and St. Xaver) and finishes at #10; if they win one of those, they'll leapfrog straight up to #6. Lebanon is finishing strong, but it won't be enough to make the playoffs. As for Elder, I can't find any scenario in which they make the postseason either.

The difference between 6 and 10 looks to be about 1.5 points. To give you an idea how close that is, if Winton Woods loses one of its last two games, that might affect West's point total enough to knock them out of the playoffs. This is going to be extremely tight.

Division 2, Region 8

#8 Trotwood-Madison at #1 Winton Woods

#5 Harrison at #4 New Carlisle Tecumseh

#6 Dayton Colonel White at #3 Turpin

#7 Dayton Carroll at #2 Edgewood

This projection is based on WW winning its last two games and Harrison losing its last two. If WW slips, Edgewood will move up to #1. Harrison could slide up as high as #2 if it wins out, though against Glen Este and Anderson that's unlikely. If Carroll wins one of its last two they could move up to snag a home game away from Tecumseh. Other than that there's not much intrigue here. Kings and Western Brown are the only area teams within striking distance, and neither has a strong enough schedule to give them points to make a run at the playoffs.